TIME
SERIES ANALYSIS ON RAINFALL PATTERN IN CALABAR MUNICIPALITY FROM 2002-2014 A
CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN METEOLOGICAL CENTRE CALABAR
CHAPTER
ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1.
Background
of the study
Nigeria’s
population and economic development are linked to climate sensitive activities
including rainfall. An understanding of current and historical rainfall trends
and variation is inevitable to the country’s future economic and tourism development.
Rainfall
is the most important natural factor that goes a long way in determining a lot
of things especially agricultural production in Nigeria, especially in the
southern part of Nigeria. The changes and variability associated with rainfall
and the pattern of extreme high or low precipitation are very important for
agriculture as well as the economic development of the state. It is a
well-known fact that the pattern of rainfall is changing on both the global and
the regional scales due to global warming (Hulme et al, 1998, Kayano, 2008). As
the moves to encourage the agricultural sector in other toavoid food scarcity
continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on rainfall variability
is of essence for the design of water supply and supplemental agricultural irrigation
schemes and the evaluation of alternative cropping and of soil water management
plans. Much as long rainfall records are mostly available in many countries,
little use is made of this information because of the unpredicted nature of the
records.(Mina and Sayedul, 2012).
It
is important to state that rainfall of Nigeria and West Africa in generally is
influenced by the dynamics of continental air mass and maritime air mass which
meet along a slanting surface called Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD)
(Odekunle, 2004). Varying degrees of convective activity and precipitation
takes place at the south of ITD while little or no cloud development or
precipitation occur in the northern part of ITD (Ilesanmi, 1972).
1.2.
Statement
of the general problem
The
current pattern of rainfall in Cross River State has been a source of concern
to the inhabitants, especially those who rely on it for their economic and
tourist activities. Therefore, it is on this basis that this study seeks to
examine the trend of rainfall in Calabar state with the view to ascertain the
feasibility of government’s effort towards improved agriculture; to enhance
food security in the state.
1.3.
Significance
of the study
This
study would be of help to tourists in planning the time of their visits. This
study would equally be of help to the policy makers of Cross River state,
agriculturists and researchers who are interested in the rainfall pattern of
Cross River state.
1.4.
Objectives
of the study
Ø To
study the pattern of rainfall in calabar municipality.
Ø To
know if rainfall pattern affects tourism and economic development.
1.5.
Scope
of the study
This
study is limited to the time series analysis on rainfall pattern in Calabar
municipality from 2002-2014
1.6.
Research hypothesis
H0:
Rainfall pattern does not affect the tourism and economic development of Calabar
H1:
Rainfall pattern affects the tourism and economic development of Calabar
1.7.
Definition
of terms
Ø TREND: a general direction in which a situation is
changing or developing.
Ø VARIABILITY: the
fact that something is likely to change
Ø TOURISM: the
business activity connected with providing accommodation, services and
entertainment for people who are visiting a place for pleasure.
Ø POLICY: a
plan or action agreed or chosen by a political party, business or a government.
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