TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 VOTING BEHAVIOR
2.2 POLITICAL PARTICIPATION
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
3.3 POPULATION OF THE STUDY
3.4 SAMPLING DESIGN AND PROCEDURE
3.4 DATA AND COLLECTION OF INSTRUMENT
3.5 ADMINISTRATION OF DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENT
3.6 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS
CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 DATA PRESENTATION
4.2 DESCRIPTION OF RESEARCH QUESTION
4.3 TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
5.2 CONCLUSION
5.3 RECOMMENDATION
REFERENCES
QUESTIONNAIRE
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Democratic elections are becoming an international norm. Governments gain legitimacy from such elections as they are receiving their power directly from the people. However, not all elections are democratic, nor are all elections that claim to be democratic actually democratic. In many countries, election unfairness is the rule, violence on election and pre-election day is frequent, and claims of fraud are numerous (Goodwin-Gill, 2006). However, as Josef Stain apparently stated, “It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes (Bazhanov, 2002).” More is needed than just watching that people are allowed to freely vote.
Nigeria’s next keenly anticipated national elections are scheduled for February and March 2019 and will be the sixth vote since the reintroduction of democracy in 1999. The 2019 polls follow Nigeria’s first peaceful transition of power to the opposition in 2015, when incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) conceded defeat to Muhammudu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). On April 9, 2018, President Buhari announced he would run for a second term. At least eighteen candidates, including Buhari, declared their intention to run for president (Verjee, Kwaja & Onubaju, 2019). In most states, gubernatorial and state legislative elections will be held two weeks after the presidential and national parliamentary polls (USIP, 2019). Nigeria’s history of electoral violence is, for many, an unfortunately accepted fact of life, and cannot be viewed in isolation from the many social and economic inequalities, ethnic and religious divisions, and structural weaknesses such as corruption and weak state capacity. While many conventional risks of election violence endure, including the willingness (or not) of candidates to accept the results, the use and abuse of state power to unfairly favor incumbents, and the ease with which young people can be mobilized toward violence, a simplistic narrative that violence is ever present and inevitable obscures important contextual changes in Nigeria since 2015. These changes, documented in this report, demonstrate the need to disaggregate electoral violence’s causes and contributing factors if such acts are to be properly understood, contextualized, and mitigated.
Despite the risks, serious violence in 2019 is not inevitable, even if that possibility seems great. The Nigerians interviewed in the course of this research have a keen sense of what is necessary for peace, whom they hold most responsible for violence, and what can be done to confront and deter those who seek to perpetrate violence. As one person interviewed for this report remarked, “there is no magician necessary” to ensure elections are largely peaceful. Many others argued for preventive action to be more locally grounded. “The best party…to engage for nonviolence [is] always the local people because they have the most to lose,” argued one interviewee from Rivers State.
The postponement of election in Nigeria has been a norm in the political history from the 2015 general election which was postponement due to some reasonable reason and articulated reason before the date of election unlike the 2019 postpone which affected the all spheres of the election and most especially the overall voter participation.
Historically, 2015 general election INEC reached the decision at a stakeholders meeting held today, February 7 2015. INEC had earlier announced that on the day either to postpone the election of not. An official close to the commission told The Associated Press that INEC had decided to postpone the election for six weeks due to the threat posed by Boko Haram. The source added that the poll shift would allow extra time for a newly constituted multinational force to secure the North-East which is currently being plagued by Boko Haram attacks. It would also enable the commission continue distribution of Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) to citizens to prevent mass disenfranchisement. The initial call for the postponement of the polls was made by National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki but it was voted against by the Council of State. The postponement of the election did not affect the voter participation in the overall election unlike in 2019 general election.
Eventually, in the early hours of Saturday, March 9 2019 the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said it could no longer go ahead with the scheduled presidential and National Assembly elections. The Chairman of the commission, Mahmoud Yakubu, announced the decision hours before the opening of the polls, after repeatedly assuring Nigerians and international observers it was fully prepared. The commission stated logistics and operational plans as reasons. It said both elections would be shifted by a week each. The presidential and National Assembly elections will now hold on February 23 while state elections will hold on March 9. Majority of Nigerians including political parties and politicians have condemned INEC’s decision and criticized Mr Yakubu for the postponement. Majority of Nigeria’s 91 political parties also condemned the postponement (Iroanusi, 2019). The following parties where deemed to have been affected by the postponement event which include the following;
1. Political Parties
2. The Voters
3. Other scheduled Events
4. Local and Foreign observers
5. Media houses
6. Adhoc Staff
7. Security personnel
8. Student
9. INEC
The above parties where affected by the postponement of the election pertaining to the function they perform in the economy. Based on the premises of avoiding election violence and reducing the non-involvement of voter’s in election process. This study will investigate the effect of election postponement on overall voter’s participation in 2019 general election.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The voters who are referred to as the electorate will certainly be affected in various ways and also have adverse effect on the participation on the Election Day at large because postponement will reduce the trust of the voters on the election process and electoral body (Iroanusi, 2019).The voter where affected in the following ways which include;
1. Many voters travelled long distances to ensure that they are present at their polling units to participate in the voting process.
2. Many others even put their businesses on hold in order to make the journeys.
3. As it stands, a majority of the people in this category where stranded at their various locations and left with three choices:
4. To return home and travel back for the elections which will incur extra cost.
5. To extend their stay at their current location which will also incur extra cost.
6. Return home and decide not to vote again –robbing themselves of their basic and civil right.
Based on the effect on the voter’s Ezenwa Nwogu, a member of YIAGA Africa, called on the electoral body to put extra efforts towards winning back the trust of the people. Mr Nwogu who spoke on a programme on Channels TV stressed the need for INEC to use the same energy it used when it called for voters’ registration, to raise the confidence of the people. “INEC needs to put in the same energy to raise the confidence of the people. They need to raise the trust levels of the Electoral Management Body (EMB).” “This EMB needs to put pressure on INEC to get Nigerians involved in all their decisions,” he said.
1.3 Objective of the Study
The aim of the study is to investigate the effect of election postponement on voter’s participation in the 2019 general election in Nigeria.
1. To examine the causes of postponement of the election.
2. To mirror out effect of postponement on the welfare of the people
3. To show the extent of postponement on the overall voter’s participation on the overall election day.
1.4 Research Objective
1. What are the causes of 2019 general election postponement?
2. Does the postponement have any effect on the welfare of the people?
3. To what extent did the postponement affect voter’s participation on the overall election day
1.5 Research Hypothesis
H0= Election postponement has no effect on voter’s participation on the Election Day
H0= Election postponement has effect on voter’s participation on the Election Day
1.6 Significance of the Study
The study will be of relevance to the following stakeholder which include;
The electorates, INEC and Political Parties and Foreign observers
The electorate will from the result of the study be able to adjust to the effect of non-participation in election. And the adverse effect of non-inclusion in electoral process due to undue postponement of Election Day or date.
The Independent Electoral Commission will from the study be able to know that the poor planning in logistics and manpower will affect the overall participation of the voters during the election period.
The political parties will from this studies be informed the adverse effect the postponement will have on the political agenda or manifesto of their various political parties. This will improve their strategic plane towards opposition parties.