ABSTRACT
This research’s main objective is to study the
dynamic relationship between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria. The
study is of utmost importance as it addresses a strategic aspect of the economy
and also considering the fact that the country has been experiencing a slow
growth rate and a severe decline in development. A regression model is used to describe the
statistical relationship between population growth and unemployment. It is
hypothesized that population growth has a strong impact on unemployment in
Nigeria. It is assumed that a positive relationship exists between population growth
and unemployment. A highly significant result was obtained after a simple
regression was carried out which shows that population plays a role in the rise
of unemployment in Nigeria which implies that a rise in population growth leads
to a rise in unemployment. Many reasons have been attributed as to why
population growth is on the rise and how it proportionately affects
unemployment. The major reasons for a rise in population include increase in
birth rate, socio-cultural beliefs and improvement in welfare and medical
facilities. Although the positive effects of population cannot be overlooked,
it is also important to note that its negative effects highly outweigh its
positives. When there is high population, the country tends to exceed its
carrying capacity, which means that the country can no longer support its large
population in terms of resources as well as job opportunities. The problem of
unemployment is very alarming and demands urgent attention and solutions as its
effects are very severe. Some of its effect include; increase in income
inequality, rise in criminal activities like Boko-Haram and decline in the
general standard of living. It is expected that everyone on all grounds
including individuals, agencies and government to take a stand and play
important roles in stabilizing population growth as well as minimizing
unemployment in the country in order to
improve the country’s growth and development on all grounds.
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The main
objective of this paper is to study and analyze the relationship between
unemployment and population growth in Nigeria. Unemployment and population are
two solid indicators to a country’s development and growth. According to the
economics help organization, Unemployment
can be explained as the number of people or people in the workforce who are
willing, able and capable to work but do not have a paid job. Unemployment is
mostly used as a tool to measure the health of the economy. The unemployment
rate is often used as a measure to unemployment. Population on the other hand
is defined according to Michael Todaro as the number of individuals living in a
country. This research aims to analyze the correlation between population and
unemployment and how a rise in unemployment affects the growth and development
of the country.
BACKGROUND STUDY
BRIEF
HISTORY OF POPULATION GROWTH TREND IN NIGERIA
After the
independence in 1960, a successful population census was carried out in Nigeria
in 1964, which an estimated population of 55.6 million people was taken into
account. Since then, it became obvious that Nigeria’s population was leading to
a rapid population growth. In 1991, a population census was held and the
country’s population increased to an approximated 88.5 million people. The
analysis helped the National Development Planning to gain more insight and
enable them to improve and develop more on their policies and planning (Evans,
2011). The UNDP reported in 2007 that the Nigerian population continuously
increased at 3% per annum with birth rate of 40 per 1,000 and also a death rate
of 15 per 1,000 (Gideon, 2016). It was also estimated that an educated Nigerian
woman gives birth to a lesser number of 3 children compared to an average
Nigerian woman who gives birth to 6 children in her lifetime (Evans, 2011).
From analysis of the past census and reports, it is evident that the population
has been rapidly growing at a high rate of 250% from 1964 to present. This
makes it problematic to match the population growth rate and development of the
country (Evans, 2011).
Nigeria at present has the highest population
in Africa and the 10th in the world. It was reported that the
Nigerian population is associated with three factors namely; fertility,
migration and mortality. It was noticed that the population growth increases at
3% which implies a doubling time of 22years (Evans, 2011). This also means that
the country is growing at a geometric progression. The problem with this is the
capacity of the country’s economy to also grow proportionately that it will
cope and accommodate the increased population. The low mortality of 14 per
1,000 decreased infant mortality rate and higher life expectancy signifies a
problem because it indicates a higher chance of survival (Evans, 2011).
A survey was conducted and it was observed
that high fertility rate is the main factor that contributes to the increasing
population of the country. A study in 1981/1982 estimated that an average
Nigerian woman gives birth to 6 children in her lifetime, which is quite a high
number (Evans, 2011). There can only be a decline in fertility rate if
Nigerians experience a change and transformation in socio-psychological
attitude of citizens, cultural beliefs and the economy. An approach was once
implemented in 1988 to achieve the goal of lowering the population. This
approach was followed by a national population policy to help limit and adjust
the population growth by increasing people’s living standard in the country
through the provision of a good health care system. The main drive and
motivation of this initiative is targeted towards young couples to encourage
them and ensure that they give birth to a minimum of four children
(Dao M. Q., 2012).
RESEARCH STATEMENT
This research
is carried out to learn about the influence of population on unemployment in
Nigeria, so as to find out why current rate of unemployment is high and
increasing rapidly over the years. This will further give an understanding
whether the high rate of unemployment is associated with the increasing
population in the country. It has been obvious that over the years, the rate of
population has been increasing at a geometric level and so does the
unemployment rate, there seem to be a positive correlation (relationship). If
my hypothesis is true, I will explore and research on possible solutions that
can best tackle the problem of unemployment and recommend policies which will
tackle this problem which will in turn help in the growth and development of
the country.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
• To
analyze the relationship between population growth and unemployment
• Find
out causes of population growth and unemployment
• Suggest
measures and policy to address the problem
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
• Does
population affect other sectors of the economy?
• What
could be the way out of the high rate of unemployment?
• How
has unemployment affected the country on Micro and Macroeconomic level?
• What
measures have been put in place (government or individual) to tackle the problem
of unemployment and increasing population in the country?
• Is
population to be blamed for the high rate of unemployment?
• Has
unemployment and population affected development in Nigeria?
RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
The hypotheses
asserted in this research are:
1.
H0: that there is a positive correlation between
unemployment and population if r is positive (+)
2.
HA: there is a
negative correlation between unemployment and population if r is negative
(-).
1.
H0: No serial
correlation between unemployment and population if d=2,
2.
HA: there is either a
positive or negative serial correlation (there is positive serial correlation
If d2, there is negative serial correlation).
1.
H0: there is no
significant variability between unemployment and population growth if p
2.
HA: there is a
significant variability on unemployment and population if p>α.
SIGNIFICANCE
OF THE STUDY This study is significant because
it addresses vital aspect of the economy. The country has been experiencing
slow growth rate and a decline in development and unemployment is a negative
indicator to development. Therefore, addressing this problem is of utmost
importance as it will root out major causes of unemployment and population
growth. It will also suggest possible strategies and measures to be put in
place to tackle the problem which will lead to the country’s growth and
development
DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS:
• Unemployment:
A state where an individual, capable and willing to work cannot secure a job.
• Poverty:
A state where an individual cannot sufficiently provide for his/her needs due
to limited financial resources
• Gross
Domestic Product: It is an indicator to a country’s economic growth and
development,
usually estimated annually.
• Population
growth: It is a rise in the number of people living in a country.
• Economic
Growth and Development: It is an increase in individual’s standard of living
and a rise
national income.