CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The
consequences of population growth on the economic development of less developed
countries are not the same because the condition prevailing in these countries
are quite different from those of developed economy. Therefore the body of
literature on population growth in Nigeria has always emphasized either the
negative or the
positive
effect.
Therefore in
every discussion, it is conventional to start with a definition of terms used
in such discussion. However, population growth can be seen by a demographer as
a change in the size of the population. But when this change occurs in such a
way that it reduces the size of population, the demographer refers it as a
negative growth but when it adds to the size of the population he regards it as
a positive one. What we get from this concept is that population growth can be
positive or negative depending on whether there is an increase or decrease in
the size of a given population. Population whether positive or negative is
derived from three demographic variables such as birth, death and migration
rates
Udabah (1999)
Threw more light on this by adding that birth and death rates in underdeveloped
countries are quite different from that of developed countries. Births rate in
underdeveloped are generally high, why those of developed countries are low. On
the other hand, death rates are higher in underdeveloped nations. The higher
rate of population growth is therefore a major characteristic of underdeveloped
nations and is partly responsible for the low rates of economic development.
Moreover, the
population of any country constitutes the most vital component of its resource
base. This aspect is based mostly on its size, growth rate, spatial
distribution, demographic structure and quality in terms of level of education,
fitness and social welfare. Population statistics are indispensable impute into
the planning process in any area. To government issuing programmes for instance
in the efforts of government in the developing countries to feed the people and
also provide quality services for them are being frustrated by rapid population
growth. This growth is attributable on the one hand to improvement in human
survival associated with the application of modern medical science to health
matters, better sanitation and immunization of children which have caused the
death rate to decrease. On the other
hand, so many socio-cultural issues have complimented the growth of population
in Nigeria positively (Lee and Miler 1990, Rennne 1995, Ainsword et al 1996).
Consequently, the
world population has been increasing and the last two decades have been
demographically unprecedented as it rose from 4.2 billion people in 1985 to 6.4
billion in 2010. Much of this occurred in the developing nations as their
population grew from 3.7 billion to 5.1 billion as against that of developed
nation which grew from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion over the same period (United
Nation 2001 billion).
Nigerian‟s
population is one of the fastest growing population in the world and Nigeria is
the most populous country in Africa, ranked the tenths as obtained from two major
sources, viz the 1991 census and the
Population Reference Bureau World Population Data Sheet.
Obviously, the population of Nigeria is large which makes it
a “giant” relative to the other Africa countries. The large population of
Nigeria implies a large market for goods and services as well as large pool of
human resources for development. However, the impact of population on
development depends not only on the absolute size but also on its quality. The
major function responsible for the rapid increase in the population of the
country is the relatively high fertility level as portrayed by a total
fertility rate of about 6.0 life – birth per woman in the 1990‟s
Having seen from
theoretical and empirical view that the population growth is an impediment to
the economic growth and development especially under developing countries. It
is then important to answer this question, how detrimental is population growth
to the economic growth? To answer these we look into the interactions between
population growth and any of the economic variable such as , population growth,
unemployment, savings ,interest, and inflation etc. So in this research work,
our demonstration of the impact of population on economic growth will be based
on the study of the relationship between population growth, interest,
unemployment and inflation. Now the question to answer becomes how those
population growth influences unemployment? Since we are working on the impact
of population growth on Nigeria, as whose population according the 2006 census
was estimated to be at a growth rate of 3%, our limitation of this study would
be on the Nigeria GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or GNI
(GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) versus the population growth rate
of Nigeria.
Nevertheless, economic growth is the GDP OR GNI divided by the total
population of the whole country. This measures the level of output in the
economy. This equation implies that if population is rapidly growing, the
economic growth will reduce marginally and people income will also decrease. So
according to the finding, GDP can be
improved that is GDP per capital by checking the population growth rate through
birth control, death rate, migration and some other economic variables and
demographic variables.
1.2STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Fundamentally, growth is an indispensible requisite for the development
that is why Nigeria‟s economic growth
had continue to dominate the main thrust of government paramount objective more
importantly, growth is associated with policies of control population growth
because a high population lead to a vicious depletion of a nation‟s financial
and material resources. According to CBN (1997) the population growth rate of
Nigeria is at an average of 2.83% from 1993 to 1997 as compared to developed
country like United States whose population rate is 1.00% on the average. This
rapid population growth has efficiently induce wide spread poverty. According
to Chege (1992),
Nigeria
became worst than the early post-colonial period. In the 1980‟s the
agricultural sector declined in productivity by 1.3% while population grew by
3.1% thus creating severe food shortage, a fall in capital income, a fall in savings and living
standard . Because of this type of situation economic growth been severely retarded
and dwarfed.
The above
presentation points to the critical stance of the economy and therefore makes a
clarion call for adequate measure to control the growth rate of Nigeria‟s
population which is at 2.8%per annum. To check this, we require constructive
demographic policy approaches that will seriously enlighten citizens of the
eminent socio-economic danger of rapid population growth.
1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
1 To find out the relationship between
population growth and
economic
growth.
2.
To examine the impact of population growth on economic
growth.
3.
To proffer appropriate solution / recommendation to
authority in Charge of
managing the economy on how to remedy the situation population growth.
1.4 STATEMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS
The hypothesis to be used is
stated thus:
H0:= The impact of population
growth on Nigerian economy is not
significant.
H1:= The impact of population growth on Nigerian economy
is significant.
H0:= There is no casual relationship between population
growth and economic growth.
H1:= There is casual relationship
between population growth and
economic
growth.
1.5 SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY
1
It provides information on population trends and their
implication To the policy makers, educators, the media and the concern
public Servant.
2
To ascertain the truthfulness whether population growth
impact
Negatively
or positively to the economic
development.
3
This study
will also serve as a reference research work for the society further studies
1.6
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This research is
macroeconomic in nature and over the trend of population growth rate and
economic growth rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2010 a period of 30 years. The
study also focuses on the effects of population growth on economic growth in
Nigeria in a bid to analyze the options available to accelerate economic
development, taking into cognizance of the fact that other factors outside the
sphere of population are also important in the determination of the face of
economic growth.
1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The utility of this research work is
restricted to the exclusive focus on population size and growth.